The proportional method for determining the Probability of Area (POA) is intended to be completed with simple math only.  This is valuable if no computer is available, although a computer is still useful for this method if there are a large number of search areas.  With the proportional method, an evaluator ranks each area on a scale of 0 to 100.  The values for each segment are averaged using a statistical mean, as shown in the example below.

This does not give a strict set of POAs.  As you can see from the example above, this indicates that there is a 232% chance the subject is in the search area, which is not possible.  These values do give a useful piece of information in that they show Segment B is where most evaluators think the subject is most likely to be.

Please register to post comments